Niagara Gazette

March 9, 2007

UB BLOG: Cleaning out the notebook


March 9

• Sorry about not posting the list of each team's chances to win the MAC tourney, like we said we would Thursday. Fortunately, the table is available at kenpom.com. (Scroll down to the bottom of the March 7 post). Though the formula didn't accurately predict UB's first round game, it shows what most informed observers think: The winner of Friday night's Akron-Kent State game will be the favorite Saturday against Toledo. And we won't be surprised if Miami tops Toledo.

• Unlike past years, there is no scenario that could lead to the MAC getting multiple bids in the NCAA Tournament. Akron would be the best choice, but with an RPI in the high 60s, the Zips are not going to go dancing if they don't win the automatic bid. Toledo isn't even in the discussion for an at-large bid. The best-case scenario for the MAC is if Akron wins the tournament, because they are talented enough to win some games in the NCAAs, and ultimately earn the conference some cash. Toledo's pressure defense could also pose a high seed problems.

• How Yassin Idbihi didn't make first- or second-team All-MAC is beyond me, but trumping Idbihi is a little difficult after he had as many fouls (five) as points in UB's biggest game of the season. Idbihi got shorted because the Bulls didn't win enough games, which, ultimately, indicts him on his biggest shortcoming: Not elevating the play of his teammates. Still, as the only player in the league to average a double-double, Yassin certainly had one of the ten best individual seasons.

• Eric Moore had every right to transfer out of UB and anybody who criticizes him for that decision is being selfish. Feel free to chide Moore for not being a pure point guard or sulking when he lost his job to Byron Mulkey but I can't blame him for transferring. Barring injury, he wasn't going to supplant Mulkey or Andy Robinson from the starting lineup, and the race for backup minutes in the Bulls backcourt will be crowded next season. If a kid doesn't think he's going to enjoy success — and the key word is enjoy — nobody should tell him he can't look elsewhere.

And the Bulls could be better off without him. Moore can be a phenomenal shooter at times, but he's streaky and the rest of his game is rather unremarkable. UB needs more talent in the post, and Moore's scholarship will help in that regard. With Rodney Pierce and Sean Smiley joining the squad next year, the Bulls won't miss Moore's scoring too much, especially if Robinson and Mulkey continue to develop.

E-mail sports reporter Jonah Bronstein at bronsteinj@gnnewspaper.com

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So you're saying there's a chance?


March 6

Odds are the Buffalo Bulls will prolong their season today with a win over Central Michigan in the opening round of the Mid-American Conference Tournament. After that, they'll need a lot of luck.

Oddsmakers have installed the 10th-seeded Bulls as two-point favorites over the No. 7 Chippewas. A more analytical approach also gives UB a decided edge.

Though Central was able to pull out a 59-56 win at Alumni Arena last month, UB has put together a stronger body of work throughout the season, according to pythagorean win percentages computed by Ken Pomeroy and logged on his resourceful Web site.

Factoring per-possession efficiency on offense and defense, Pomeroy's formula says UB should beat a truly average opponent almost 41 percent of the time. Comparitively, the Chippewas' pythagorean win percentage rounds off to 33.4 percent.

(Still with me?)

Plugging those numbers into a formula initially developed for baseball by Bill James, the pioneer of advanced sports analysis, we can use the

pythagorean win percentages to determine that UB has a 58.1 percent chance to beat Central tonight on a neutral floor.

Applying the same math, however, points to an abrupt end to UB's tourney run on Friday. Should the Bulls get past the first round, they'll face No. 2 seed Akron and they're .868 pythagorean win percentage, the best in the MAC. In that matchup, UB would have just a 9.7 percent chance of success.

Check back Thursday for a breakdown of each quartefinalists' chance to earn the MAC's dance ticket.

E-mail sports reporter Jonah Bronstein at bronsteinj@gnnewspaper.com