Americans have been led to believe that the supply of oil is nearly limitless and for the next half century we will have more than enough crude to meet the growing needs of the global economy. The Republican party’s national platform touts the availability of untapped reserves in Alaska and along our shores while the party currently in charge (the Democrats) seems genuinely unconcerned with future supplies.
But, as we go about our lives, guzzling gas at amazing rates and taking its presence for granted, the rest of the world is concerned about the long-term prospects for oil as the world’s preeminent energy source. Along those lines, in early November the United Kingdom newspaper, the Guardian, dropped a bombshell, quoting two unnamed oil industry executives who said that the International Energy Agency was willingly overstating oil supplies.
The IEA has, in recent years, said that oil production will rise from its current level of 83 million barrels per day to 105 million barrels per day by 2030, a growth of 27 percent. The whistleblowers said that many within the IEA know that this is impossible and maintaining oil supplies at even 90 to 95 million barrels per day is not achievable. They noted that back in 2005 the IEA was openly saying that 120 million barrels per day by 2030 was realistic but has since then tempered those proclamations to 105 million, an indicator of considerable disagreement within the organization. The whistleblowers said that some key IEA personnel believe that the oil peak is upon us, signaling certain disaster for sustainable economic growth.
That news caught the attention of the rest of the world but went almost unmentioned by the mainstream media in North America. That may be because it wasn’t sexy enough amongst other timely issues like health care or global warming or it may have been the fact that the report painted the US in an unfavorable light. The IEA sources said that senior officials have downplayed the rate of decline in oil reserves while overplaying the potential for new reserves because the US government and Wall Street have exerted considerable pressure on the organization because they did not want a more truthful report to trigger a buying panic that would cause a sudden spike in gasoline prices in turn tempering our nation’s recovery from the Great Recession.
If that’s true — which it very much could be — it’s a very poor way by which to manage a nation: The long-term health of our economy has been abandoned for short-term benefit. That’s a poor economic model that sets the stage for considerable, almost unfathomable, struggles by Generations X and Y and today’s youth when they encounter this disaster unprepared.
Although the fears for an oil shortage may be old hat to the rest of the world (this is not the first time that the concept of Peak Oil has reared its head in a trusted international news outlet) it remains as an underreported, almost conspiratorial, theory in the states. Fortunately, more voices are speaking up on the issue in the U.S., including the smart money. One of the more trusted names in personal investing, Raymond James, has noted the impending oil shortage. The company’s director of energy research Marshall Adkins was recently quoted as saying that the peak occurred in 2008 and, sometime in the next decade, $6 to $8 gasoline will be the norm. Tom Petrie, vice-chairman of Bank of America Merrill Lynch, agrees, saying that we have already hit Peak Oil and we are in a terminal decline of supply at the same time demand is on the rise courtesy of China who, by 2030, will account for 43 percent of demand (It should be noted that China clearly understands the reality of the oil shortage. They are aggressively buying up reserves and foreign assets while at the same time developing new technologies).
We can only hope that in 2010 we see more news outlets covering the reality of oil’s future. Then and only then, after being educated on an issue of grave importance, will our elected officials and businessmen develop the sense of urgency necessary to quickly address our untapped reserves and develop alternative energy sources, ensuring the economic vibrancy of future generations of Americans.
Bob Confer is a Gasport resident and vice president of Confer Plastics Inc. in North Tonawanda. E-mail him at bobconfer@juno.com.
Bob Confer
Related Photos
CONFER: Upcoming oil shortage: Part three
- Bob Confer
-
-
CONFER: Time to end the NFL’s blackout rule
Long ago, in a much simpler time, ticket sales accounted for the majority of revenues for professional football teams.
-
CONFER: Federal spending derailed by Amtrak
We’ve been inundated with news reports about the fiscal woes of the U.S. Postal Service. Why is it that we never hear anything about another federal enterprise facing ongoing losses -- Amtrak?
-
CONFER: Sifting through the hydrofracking propaganda
Hydrofracking ranks among the most contentious issues in New York. For each person clamoring for the jobs and economic development it will bring to the Empire State, there’s another who strongly opposes the method of natural gas extraction for its potential to damage the environment.
-
CONFER: Unexpected sights in the wilds of Niagara
In recent years, local residents have had the chance to witness some interesting animals within our borders. Among those that generated the most press and most talk were the black bears that frequented the area for a couple of months.
-
CONFER: On 911, Upstate, payroll taxes
Congresswoman Kathy Hochul’s ALERT ACT has been welcomed with open arms by many people in her district, including my friend Scott Leffler who addressed it in his column last week. He supports the Act in entirety. I, on the other hand, can’t do the same.
-
CONFER: Presenting an alternative to war
Last week I was the guest on Don Griffin’s “Second Opinion” on KJSL in St. Louis. The topic of discussion was a 2009 column I wrote about a part of the Constitution that gives Congress the power to issue Letters of Marque and Reprisal.
-
CONFER: Wage Theft Act: More paperwork for businesses
Business owners and managers like to spend their time doing productive things that make them, their company, their co-workers and their clients better.
-
CONFER: Libya is no better off — maybe its worse
All of the major news outlets, and therefore most U.S. citizens, were downright giddy over the uprising — and NATO intervention — in Libya. Thinking it was some sort of feel-good story, an extension of the Arab Spring, they reveled in the toppling of Gadhafi and threw unyielding support behind the rebel forces.
-
CONFER: Government encroaching on parental rights
Once the government has its foot in the door through the federally sponsored Home Visiting Program, it will have carte blanche to manage all facets of child care.
-
Time to occupy Ralph Wilson Stadium
Most Americans can identify, in part, with the ideals of the Occupy Wall Street movement. What probably resonates most with the majority, regardless of “right” or “left” tendencies, is the basic concept that our government should not be in the business of business.
- More Bob Confer Headlines
-
Obama Scraps Birth Control Mandate
US Airmen's Killer Sentenced to Life in Germany
Navy Names Ship for Gabrielle Giffords
Raw Video: Deadly Blasts in Syria
Romney Slams President Obama at CPAC
Gingrich: Pres. Obama 'waging War on Religion'
5 Killed in Wrong-way Crash on I-10 in La.
Uzbek Man Pleads Guilty in Plot to Kill Obama
Denver's Largest-Ever Drug Bust Nets Dozens
Marines: No Punishment for Nazi-like Flag
Vets Look to Translate Military Skills Into Jobs
Raw Video: School Bus Burst Into Flames
LA School Reopens Amid Sex Abuse Scandal
$25B Settlement Reached Over Foreclosure Abuses
Pentagon: Allow Women Closer to Front Lines
LA School in Sex Abuse Scandal Reopens
Raw Video: Italy's Mount Etna Bursts Into Life
Greeks March; Angry Despite Debt Deal
Air Force Airlines: Leaders Get Polished Service
Ga Girl Fights Off Kidnapper at Walmart
