PITTSFORD — After losing eight of their final ten games in 2008 to finish under .500 for a third straight season, the Buffalo Bills opted to keep coach Dick Jauron and the rest of the coaching staff, citing the benefits of continuity.

Continuity wasn’t a consideration months later when the Bills dismantled their offensive line. And according to research conducted by the Football Outsiders think tank, that could very well mean another losing campaign in 2009.

In the 2007 Pro Football Prospectus, crafted by the mathematical minds that write for FootballOutsiders.com, Jason McKinley published an essay testing the theory that game-to-game and year-to-year continuity correlated to better offensive line performance.

“Given the importance of continuity, it might be better to play a consistent line game after game and year after year instead of constantly tinkering in an attempt to make small gains in talent,” McKinley concluded.

The Bills did no tinkering up front after the 2007 season, and the 2008 Pro Football Prospectus projected the team to win 7.2 games, a slight improvement from the 2007 projection (6.8).

After a third straight 7-9 effort, Buffalo threw a grenade in the trenches. Left guard Derrick Dockery after banking more than $18 million the past two seasons. Geoff Hangartner, a backup from Carolina, was signed to replace the departing center tandem of Melvin Fowler and Duke Preston. Then, in the most controversial move, the Bills traded Pro Bowl left tackle Jason Peters to Philadelphia, unwilling to make him one of the highest-paid blockers in football.

With the extra picks obtained in the Peters trade, the Bills were able to draft Louisville center Zach Wood and Oregon State tackle Andy Levitre in the first and second rounds. Both rookies are expected to start at guard this season, while last year’s right tackle, Langston Walker, moves to the left side, and last year’s right guard, Brad Butler, shifts out to tackle.

Sean McCormick, author of the Bills chapter in the 2009 Football Outsiders Almanac, said the glaring lack of continuity on the offensive line is a major factor in the team’s 5.3-win projection for this year, which is the lowest of the Jauron era.

“With these projections, we look at a lot of trends,” McCormick said in a recent phone interview. “Our research has found that the more an offensive line plays together from year to year, the better the team performs. The Bills are really, really tearing up their offensive line.”

McCormick said the system does look favorably on the additions of Wood and Levitre, noting that investing high draft picks in the offensive line tends to have positive results.

But the Football Outsiders game charting project found Walker to be the worst pass protector on the Bills line last year. That’s an ominous sign, considering Walker will face better pass rush specialists on the left side.

“I’m sure there are detractors out there,” Walker said Sunday. “But I’m here to prove them wrong.”

The Bills offensive line coach, Lockport native Sean Kugler, said during spring practices that the reformulated line faces the same challenge as a group of incumbents.

“We’ve got to gel as a line, but that’s with any line every year, whether it’s the same people coming back or it’s new people,” he said.

Obviously, there are teams who out-perform their Football Outsiders win projection each year. Last year, the system calculated 5.6 wins for the Miami Dolphins. With a revamped offensive line, a new coaching staff, and a new quarterback, the Dolphins went 10-6.

Other than adding Terrell Owens — whom the projection system views as an old, inefficient receiver — the Bills did not make significant changes anywhere except blocking corps.

“For things to go well this year, the offensive line has to come together and be better than expected,” McCormick said. “That’s factors No. 1, 2 and 3.”

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BUY THE BOOK

The 2009 Pro Football Almanac is available in PDF format or as a printed book through FootballOutsiders.com.

E-mail reporter Jonah Bronstein at jonah.bronstein@niagara-gazette.com