Long-range forecast favors ‘liquid’ over ‘icy’ precipitation

Local News

Related Photos

A plow heads West on Lockport Road during heavy snow squalls early Saturday afternoon.

February 12, 2012

Staff Reports Niagara Gazette The Niagara Gazette Sun Feb 12, 2012, 11:13 PM EST

NIAGARA FALLS — The climate trend that’s emerged this winter — brief spells of cold and minimal snow cover, broken up quickly by warmth and rain — apparently will hold into spring.

A cold snap and a few inches of snow are in this weekend’s forecast, but according to National Weather Service meteorologist Aaron Reynolds, both the cold and the snow should start melting away by Monday.

Through spring’s arrival in March, Reynolds predicted, “we’ll see a continuation of the pattern” — bursts of cold air and light snow, followed by warmth, snowmelt, rain and repeat.

Weather data confirms the common belief that we’re experiencing a mild winter in the Western New York area. Monthly average air temperature was 35.5 degrees in December and 30.3 degrees in January, 5.4 degrees higher than normal both months. Recorded snowfall in that period was 24.6 inches, or less than half the expected average.

January was more wet than icy, with measured precipitation of 4.43 inches for the month, over an inch more than average.

So far, February has been warmer — the 9-day monthly average temperature clocks in at 33.4 degrees, 8.4 degrees higher than normal — and has seen only trace precipitation.

Whatever snow is still coming this winter, it’s less likely to be of the lake-effect variety despite the fact Lake Erie never froze over, according to Reynolds. Lake effect snow can result when cold air cuts across the open and relatively warm lakes. But at this point in the year, the days are getting longer and greater sunlight will help prevent the warm-cold clash that makes the famous white stuff.

Environmentally, a mild winter may or may not exact a price from the region later this year, according to John Farfaglia, a horticulturalist with the Cornell Cooperative Extension in Lockport.

The lack of snow cover poses no threat to fruit trees, he said, but relative mild conditions over an extended period could rouse trees out of dormancy earlier than normal. Once bud formation starts, cold is a lethal enemy.

“It’s the beginning of the growing season when the potential for damage is highest. It’s always wait-and-see,” Farfaglia said.

Larger populations of stinging pests — wasps, hornets and the like — can also result from a warmer winter. Farfaglia said that’s because they’ll come out earlier in the spring and therefore have more time to build up their numbers.

The lack of ice in the lakes might have a consequence later in the year, Reynolds said. In spring, as the land and air begin warming up, ice keeps the water cool a while longer. That helps slow the growth of algae blooms in summer.

Reynolds’ early forecast is for a wet spring — through May, the precipitation outlook is 30 percent above normal, and trending toward “liquid” rather than “icy”— but whether it’s a cooler or warmer season than normal is up in the air. NWS suggests a 50/50 chance the barometer could go either way.

Text Only | Photo Reprints

Local News

Legislation protecting Falls air base units moves forward
The effort to protect jobs at the Niagara Falls Air Reserve Station got a boost from a committee in Washington, D.C. on Thursday.

May 24, 2012 1 Photo
Korean student robbed at gunpoint in Falls
Detectives are investigating the robbery of a 25-year-old woman Wednesday night in front of a motel in the 400 block of Main Street.

May 24, 2012 1 Photo
Davis will not seek Murphy removal
Lawyers for accused killer Matthew “Bones” Davis say their client will not ask to have Niagara County Court Judge Matthew J. Murphy III removed from his case.

May 24, 2012 1 Photo
Labor group laments economic development efforts
Economic development in New York state has become a joke to some in the area. And many of them are demanding changes to a process which spends approximately $3 billion a year.

May 24, 2012
Repaving work on Old Military Road rises to $790K
Sometimes a change is good. Sometimes a change is bad. For the Town of Lewiston, a change can be pretty costly.

May 24, 2012
Fifth-grader presents list of 400 names asking for new playground
A 10-year-old boy carrying a petition containing more than 400 signatures asked members of the Niagara Falls School Board on Thursday to consider building a new playground at his school.

May 24, 2012
Bomb threat leads to arrest at NT school
A North Tonawanda teen was arrested Thursday morning for sending a one-sentence bomb threat to the computer of a fellow high school student, resulting in a brief lockdown of the school.

May 24, 2012 1 Photo
Sense of resignation on AES pact
May 24, 2012
Marching to the new veterans memorial
It's the unofficial beginning of summer.

Memorial Day may mean cookouts with hot dogs and hamburgers, a trip on the river in a boat or simply a day off from work Monday.

May 24, 2012 2 Photos
Fugitive in meth case caught
Moments after Falls police narcotics detectives and U.S. Drug Enforcement Administration agents uncovered a clandestine meth lab in the city's Echota neightborhood, their prime suspect sent a cryptic text message to Detective Joe Palmero.

May 24, 2012 2 Photos
More Local News Headlines

Do you think cigarette sales to non-Native American customers should be taxed on reservations?