Our Oscar nomination predictions here at Night & Day weren’t infallible, but they were pretty darn good.
I can’t say I’m as confident when it comes to our predictions for the actual Oscar winners. There are a couple easy races for the major awards, but for the others, who knows? Just take a look at the nominees for Best Actress, or as the award is actually named, “Actress in a Leading Role.”
You’ve got Anne Hathaway’s lauded performance, but Kate Winslet has earned nearly as much buzz for her turn in “The Reader.” Angelina Jolie could pull off the win. And Meryl Streep’s nominated again. You can’t count her out. Never sleep on Streep.
This is what happens when the Best Picture front-runner (“Slumdog Millionaire”) gets shut out of the major acting awards. With no dominant figures emerging from the Best Picture favorite, there aren’t any clear hints to the other awards.
But we will trudge on diligently, making our Oscar picks and taking our hits. It’s the least we can do.
Writing (adapted screenplay)
(“The Curious Case of Benjamin Button,” “Doubt,” “Frost/Nixon,” “The Reader,” “Slumdog Millionaire”)
Even with the writing awards, the decisions are tough. “Slumdog ” should have an upper hand, being the Best Picture favorite. “Frost/Nixon” might have an outside shot. But we’ll step out on a limb and pick “Benjamin Button” for this award because its source material came from F. Scott Fitzgerald, a fact that will count for more than it should in this case.
Writing (original screenplay)
(“Frozen River,” “Happy-Go-Lucky,” “In Bruges,” “Milk,” “WALL-E”)
It would be great to see “WALL-E” net a few awards, but it won’t get a win here. If there’s any film picking up late momentum heading into Sunday, it’s “Milk,” which should get the win.
Best Animated Film
(“Bolt,” “Kung Fu Panda,” “WALL-E”)
“WALL-E” in a blowout, of course. The bigger question is: What will it take for an animated film to get nominated for Best Picture? “Beauty and the Beast” is still the only movie to earn that distinction, and “WALL-E” is certainly better than “Beast.”
Best Supporting Actress
(Amy Adams in “Doubt,” Penelope Cruz in “Vicky Cristina Barcelona,” Viola Davis in “Doubt,” Taraji P. Henson in “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button,” Marisa Tomei in “The Wrestler”)
One of the most wide-open categories in recent memory. We wouldn’t count anyone out, though Henson is probably the underdog in the mix. The two actresses from “Doubt” both have a good chance of taking the award home. But it would have been better if one or the other wasn’t nominated. Watch for Penelope Cruz to swoop in and nab the statue.
Best Supporting Actor
(Josh Brolin in “Milk,” Robert Downey Jr. in “Tropic Thunder,” Philip Seymour Hoffman in “Doubt,” Heath Ledger in “The Dark Knight,” Michael Shannon in “Revolutionary Road”)
By most accounts, this should be a slam dunk. Heath Ledger was all but handed the award last year, though if there’s an upset, it’ll be Brolin.
Best Actress
(Anne Hathaway in “Rachel Getting Married,” Angelina Jolie in “Changeling,” Melissa Leo in “Frozen River,” Meryl Streep in “Doubt,” Kate Winslet in “The Reader”)
The smart money would have been on Hathaway a few months ago, but considering her Golden Globe win (albeit for Best Supporting Actress in “The Reader”) and corresponding momentum since then, Kate Winslet gets the nod.
Best Actor
(Richard Jenkins in “The Visitor,” Frank Langella in “Frost/Nixon,” Sean Penn in “Milk,” Brad Pitt in “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button,” Mickey Rourke in “The Wrestler”)
We’re on the fence here. It’s hard to ignore the comeback story of Rourke, but there’s a lot of talk about Penn’s portrayal of Harvey Milk. Langella can’t be completely ignored either, but we’ll go with Sean Penn.
Best Director
(Danny Boyle, “Slumdog Millionaire,” Stephen Daldry, “The Reader,” David Fincher, “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button,” Ron Howard, “Frost/Nixon,” Gus Van Sant, “Milk”)
Some years, the winner of Best Picture doesn’t give us the winner of Best Director. This will not be one of those years, as Danny Boyle should ride the “Slumdog” juggernaut to another award.
Best Picture
(“The Curious Case of Benjamin Button,” “Frost/Nixon,” “Milk,” “The Reader,” “Slumdog Millionaire”)
Yeah, so we gave away our Best Picture pick a few times before this entry. Sorry for killing all the suspense, but “Slumdog Millionaire” is our pick for Best Picture.
We’ve yet to meet anyone who’s seen the film and doesn’t like it. That doesn’t guarantee any film an Oscar, but it can’t hurt the chances of “Slumdog.”
Every other film is a longshot in this category. But if you want to take a flyer on anything else, it should be “Milk.”
IF YOU WATCH
WHAT: The 2009 Academy Awards
WHEN: 8 p.m. Sunday
CHANNEL: ABC (Chan. 7)
